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The scoreboard
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Issue 03 calls, marked to market
Hit
Bitcoin, the July wave-two rally
Rallied about 15% off the July 1st low into the resistance zone, tagging 66.9K on July 21st before rejecting. Support held throughout. The corrective bounce we called, on schedule.
Hit
Dollar, the breakout
Breaking out to the upside, as expected, now at a one-month high above 101. The move toward 104.80 to 112.59 is underway.
Open
S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the next domino
Still ranging. No breakdown yet; if anything the S&P pushed to the top of its range near 7,500. The top is not confirmed. 7,353 is the line that starts the next leg down.
Open
Bitcoin 39,000, October low
Unchanged. The cycle work still points to a major low around October.
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This week
Issue 03 said July would do what July does, and it did. Bitcoin rallied off the July 1st low straight into the resistance zone we named weeks ago, 66,230 to 76,640, tagged the lower edge at 66.9K on July 21st, and got rejected. This was not a lucky line. It was written down before it happened:
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9 July · on YouTube, with Bitcoin near 62K
The resistance zone for this month is 66,233 to 76,638. Once this rally is over, potentially in August, we move toward new lows into September and October. 39K remains the ideal target.
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The rally is now mature, and the shape argues it is close to done: three waves up, not five, extended about 15% off the low and carried more by relief than conviction. That is a bear-market bounce, not a new bull market. It stays corrective until Bitcoin gives a clean five-wave move up and a decisive break above 76,638. Until then, the base case is lower.
Bitcoin. The wave-two rally into the resistance zone, and the path toward the autumn lows.
What the calendar says now
July is, by a wide margin, the strongest month for Bitcoin in a bear market, averaging around 10% across the last three bear-market years. That is why we leaned into this rally. But the same data flips in August, historically one of the most bearish months even inside bear markets, in 2014, 2018 and 2022 alike. The closest analog is 2022, when the market squeezed higher into mid-August before losing another 40% into the lows. A final push into resistance, even stretching into early August, would surprise nobody here. What matters is that the calendar has turned from tailwind to headwind.
Stocks: stuck at the top
Bitcoin does not trade in a vacuum, and the S&P 500 is telling a version of the same story. Since the last issue the index has not broken down. If anything it pushed to the top of its range, near 7,500, refusing to follow crypto lower. That is the honest read: the indices have held up better than the leader.
But the structure is thinner than the price suggests. The move up from the June low is only three waves, not five, and it has stalled under resistance without a single impulsive breakout, the same tell we flagged on Bitcoin. A break below 7,353 tips the odds toward a top and opens the next leg down. A decisive break above 7,536 to 7,586 reopens the path to new highs. Until then it is a range, and the burden of proof is on the bulls. The Nasdaq is the weaker of the two and the one to watch for the first crack.
S&P 500. A three-wave bounce stalling under resistance, coiling into a decision.
I track the indices intraday with members in the daily MCO Markets updates.
| Three waves up is a bounce. Five waves up is a trend. |
Levels for the weeks ahead
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Bitcoin
▸ Resistance, reached and rejecting: 66,230 to 76,640. The wave-two top should form in here.
▸ Support and next downside target: 59,369 to 62,533.
▸ Below the July low near 57,700: opens 56,500, then 51,000, then the mid-40s and 39,000.
▸ Changes the view: five waves up and a decisive break above 76,638.
S&P 500 & Nasdaq
▸ S&P range: support 7,353 to 7,401, resistance 7,496 to 7,586. Last swing low 7,430.
▸ Below 7,353: the top becomes more likely and the next leg down opens. Triangle invalidation 7,235.
▸ Above 7,536, then 7,578: reopens the path to new highs.
▸ Nasdaq, the weaker index: resistance around 28,800 to 29,750, support 28,200 to 28,446.
Dollar, DXY
▸ Breaking out to the upside, as expected. Support on a pullback: 99.90 to 100.65.
▸ Upside target 104.80 to 112.59. A stronger dollar is a headwind for risk assets.
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Zoom out and the picture is calm, not alarming. Every Bitcoin bear market has drawn down less than the one before, and this one is only about 54% from the high. A move to 39,000 would put it near 70%, in line with the pattern, with the cycle low still pointing to October. Enjoy the rally, respect the calendar, and let the levels decide the rest.
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Ripples of Change: The Essentials of the MCO Wave Method, Volume I.
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